Following Attorney General Pam Bondi’s disastrous testimony in Congress, all attention is currently focused on the Epstein scandal. And while the appearance of both rank incompetence and a sinister cover-up further damage the Trump administration’s approval ratings, it also provides a momentary diversion from a much bigger problem: Trump’s failure to deliver on his core campaign promises.
Aside from partial success on immigration issues, the Trump administration has failed to deliver on any of its other campaign promises. A large part of the reason is lack of effort. Instead of working with Congress to deliver the MAGA agenda, the administration squandered its first and most important year in office on foreign military adventures. 

It bombed Iran, invaded Venezuela and kidnapped its president, and has rattled its saber at several other countries, none of which pose a threat to the United States. Trump has also talked about acquiring Greenland, either voluntarily or by vaguely implied force, depending upon his mood. He has entertained the Prime Minister of Israel five times since taking office himself. And he has cozied up to arch neocon Lindsey Graham while making yet another effort to get libertarian Thomas Massie, who supports much more of the MAGA agenda than Graham, booted out of Congress.

Just since months after having declared Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program “totally obliterated” during the 2025 airstrikes, the administration sent massive military resources to within striking distance of Iran, making that nation an offer it couldn’t accept rather than couldn’t refuse. But after more bluster, it again backed off, just as it did during Trump’s first term, rendering yet another fool’s errand on behalf of a foreign nation just one more waste of time and resources, albeit this time without significant loss of lives.

It’s hard to believe it has only been a year since Elon Musk, as part of DOGE, talked about cutting $2 trillion per year from the federal government’s budget. Whole departments were to be eliminated and others cut significantly. Trump went so far as to say even the Department of Defense would be cut.
Less than a year later, Trump asked for military spending to be increased by fifty percent to $1.5 trillion per year. 

Overall, the federal government is on track to spend about $7.4 trillion in FY2026, meaning it will have increased more in two years under Trump than it did in four years under Biden. This is nothing new. Spending always goes up significantly faster when a Republican is president, regardless of which party controls Congress. But Trump was supposed to be different from all those previous Republicans.

To be fair, the main priority for Trump’s supporters was immigration, not spending cuts. Trump promised not only to “seal the border,” i.e. stop the massive inflow of new illegal immigrants, but to conduct “mass deportations” of those already here. His success on this core promise has been limited and is unlikely to produce further results.

On the “sealing the border” part, Trump has largely succeeded. His “Remain in Mexico” policy might be the most sensible of either of his terms. Most illegal immigrants in the United States initially entered legally, claiming asylum as refugees, and either overstayed their visas or simply failed to show up for future court proceedings. Previous administrations had simply thrown up their hands at that point and said, “Oh, well!”

The first Trump administration changed the rules of the game. No longer were asylum seekers given a court date and released into the interior of the United States. Instead, they were required to remain outside the United States until granted asylum. This has probably been the most successful policy in either of Trump’s terms and credit is should be given where it is due.

The rest of the immigration agenda hasn’t gone nearly as well. The main problem with significantly reducing the population of illegal immigrants already here is it may not be possible. Conservatives often criticize liberals for believing anything, no matter how unrealistic, can be accomplished if only the political will were there to do it. But when it comes to immigration, conservatives seem to share this delusion.

The “official” number of illegal aliens residing in the United States according to the U.S. government has remained around 11 million for decades, prompting understandable skepticism from conservatives. The Pew Research Center estimated it higher at 14 million in 2023, projecting it to rise in 2024 before decreasing in 2025. Trump and his supporters claimed it was more like 15-20 million in 2024.

Even using the lowest number of 11 million, Trump’s promise seems about as realistic as Lincoln’s made dream to get rid of all the African Americans after the Civil War. Deporting 11,000,000 people in four years would mean 7,500 per day, every day, seven days a week, 52 weeks a year. So, when a plane carrying 200 allegedly criminal aliens leaves the country, it may make good press for the administration but it’s a rounding error. 

If one were going to take a significant bite out of the existing population, it would seem logical to concentrate one’s efforts in red states like Texas or Arizona. Instead, the administration devoted considerable energy and resources to deep blue Minnesota, leading to violent protests, two controversial shootings, and relatively few deportations. The administration then backed down and for all intents and purposes gave a victory to the protestors. 
 

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Tom Mullen is the author of It’s the Fed, Stupid and Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness? 

 Tom