MAGA is riding high these days, convinced they’ve finally exorcised the neoconservatives who controlled the Republican Party for decades. Supposedly gone are the days of endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the trillion-dollar boondoggles sold as “spreading democracy”? Trump promised to drain that swamp, and his base believes he’s done it—putting America First and mocking the old guard like John McCain and Liz Cheney.

I hate to burst that bubble, but the neocons are far from dead. At best they’re playing possum. And President Trump’s looming military action against Venezuela could be their golden ticket back to power, co-opting the very movement that thought it had buried them.

Let’s start with the obvious: the demise of the neocons has been greatly exaggerated. Sure, their poster boys like Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney couldn’t win a presidential primary at the moment. But look who has staffed both Trump’s administrations. Mike Pompeo, the quintessential neocon hawk, served as Secretary of State the last time, pushing regime change agendas from Iran to North Korea.

Now we’ve got Marco Rubio in the same spot, a guy who’s never met a foreign entanglement he didn’t like. Rubio’s been a darling of the interventionist crowd since his Senate days, advocating for arming Syrian rebels and toppling dictators throughout the Middle East. Trump himself has been more restrained—no full-scale invasions on his watch yet—but that’s a far cry from the drastic change some in MAGA envisioned.

Trump hasn’t decreased overseas troop deployment on net whatsoever and the Pentagon budget has risen significantly in both of his administrations. As for Rubio, he’s trying to sound as America First as he can while serving the current boss but make no mistake: the push for action in Venezuela reeks of his influence, along with other holdovers like Elliott Abrams, who’s been knee-deep in Latin American meddling since the Reagan era. Throw in unconditional support for Israel’s wars, and you’ve got essentially a new Bush administration disguised as America First.

We must also remember that MAGA isn’t monolithic. There’s a vocal antiwar segment who support voices like Rand Paul or Tucker Carlson, warning that boots on the ground in Caracas would betray everything Trump ran on. But the polls tell a different story: a clear majority of Trump supporters back military intervention in Venezuela. According to a recent CBS News/YouGov survey, 66% of MAGA Republicans favor U.S. military action there, compared to just 47% of non-MAGA Republicans.

Overall American support hovers around 20%, but within the GOP base, it’s Trump’s framing as a quick hit against drugs and migration that’s winning the day. If this operation goes like George H.W. Bush’s 1989 invasion of Panama—swift, low casualties, Noriega in cuffs and headlines blaring victory—watch what happens. Bush’s approval skyrocketed to 80%, and it solidified a bloc of Republican voters hungry for more “decisive” action.

Panama was sold as anti-drug and pro-democracy, just like Venezuela today. A short, “successful” war could lure many America First voters back to the pre-Trump era, where every problem abroad demanded a military solution. The antiwar minority would be ridiculed and shouted down as having been wrong to doubt Trump, and the party would inch closer to its old interventionist self.
 

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Tom Mullen is the author of It’s the Fed, Stupid and Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness? 

 Tom